Saturday, September 22, 2012

Tax Hikes, the National Debt, and the "Fiscal Cliff"

Posting this in the spirit of non-partisan concern for not just this but also the looming "fiscal cliff" that is bad for all of us.  Matters not your party affiliation or who you'll vote for this fall.  We all need to be concerned about these topics and in case you didn't know our Congress went into recess last week without doing anything about these issues. They are it seems utterly deadlocked in the bitterest way on nearly everything. For example, they recessed but didn't adjourn because they could not agree on a simple adjournment resolution. This is embarassing for us as a country, much less them as the US Congress.

Issues:

Looming tax hikes and deduction losses/limit changes:
http://www.atr.org/days-taxmageddon-a7203

"Fiscal cliff", triggering across-the-board spending cuts on all manner of things, for good and bad, affecting employment for millions:
http://moneymorning.com/tag/fiscal-cliff-2013/

National debt now exceeds GDP. Imagine owing $100k in credit card debt but you make only $95k/yr. and need to borrow money from another credit card or other source to pay the interest on your $100k of debt. That's where we're at. The Fed has enacted an "open-ended quantitave easing" which means we are going to print more and more money and auction off more and more debt until "the job scene improves". In the mean time, our currency loses real value due to inflation. The major debt raters like Standard and Poors have warned the US sovereign debt rate will be downgraded soon if we don't show a clear plan to get out of our debt problem. This is no small problem. It is very serious and like the other issues above will have big effects on us all, regardless of political affiliation.
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/US-Debt-Economic-Output/2011/11/21/id/418767

You can say that one party or president did more to create this mess than another. But at this point it doesn't matter. It's like arguing about which crewmember is most responsible for the ship hitting the iceberg while the Titanic continues to sink. At this point to what degree a particular administration or Congress is responsible isn't relevant. What is is the need for effective action from our leaders in Congress and in the WH.

What do you want to see happen about these things before inaction torpedoes us further? Tell your Congessoids. Contact info can be found at http://www.congress.gov/.

The Full Cost of College Today

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/your-money/the-hidden-inheritance-many-parents-already-provide.html

"Indeed, without any family assistance in their 20s and 30s, people like her have little margin for error. They’re the ones who believed the well-meaning grown-ups who told them as teenagers and 22-year-olds to go to the best college and graduate schools they could. They accepted the gospel that any education debt was good debt."

Bingo.

My folks are both college-educated and members of the Silent Generation, born in the 1930s.  All 4 years of their college education cost less than $10k each, actually more around $5k for all 4 years each, and this included room and board.  This was back in the early  1950s, and before there were college loans available from the gov't or private sources.  But it was also the time when if you had any kind of college degree, it was your pass to an immediate decent job with good prospects so long as you weren't a total idiot.

As time went on, college loans became available, especially in the 1960s.  So economics kicked in.  Just like the wage-price spiral, the credit-price spiral took effect and the cost of college went up as the number of consumers demanding it went up while the number of colleges remained mostly the same.

This was at least tolerable as long as decent jobs were at the end of the road and loan repayments were tolerable.  What also helped was that the economy did not demand that many specialized/technical workers; just having a degree told an employer you were "educable" and that was enough for most employers.  But then in the 1980s things started to change.  Even as tuitions continued to rise and credit for college loans continued to expand, the economy began to contract and began to demand more specific kinds of workers at the same time.  This continued into the 1990s.

My folks and others from their generation (eg: guidance counsellors) not in direct contact with this broader trend had no basis for giving me or anyone in my generation direction regarding college majors that would be of general appeal to employers.  Majoring in anything and finishing college was to them sufficient to guarantee a graduate a decent-paying job with a good future and reliable long-term employment.  

They (and others of their generation) were as surprised as I was to find The Rules were now very different.  After struggling for a couple years in various low-paying jobs (I had majored in History) that kept me living in houses with 6 other people and barely making payments on my loans, I realized I couldn't afford not to do something different.  Discovering from my various temp jobs I had an aptitude with computers (remember HyperCard 1.0?), I decided to go to grad school for an I.S. degree.  I avoided half the new debt I would have incurred by taking a graduate assistantship but I had to take loans out still to meet living expenses.  But this was debt worth going into because it was a marketable degree; my BA in History was not.  But I can say those classes did do something for me other than get me and my folks into 10s of 1,000s of dollars in debt (my alma mater at the time was $75k for all 4 years, room and board included; now, it's $200k and I probably wouldn't be admitted today).  I learned that people rarely learn from history and so do in fact make the same mistakes over and over, and that by and large the larger the group of people involved in deciding or doing anything the more likely they are to make a really bad decision or do something really dumb.  Of course there are a few stark examples of this not happening and they are so rare as to be singular sources of great collective pride that lasts sometimes for generations.  That's how rare they are.  Example: America's decision to enter WWII on the Allied side.  Did you know that within the US gov't there was debate about entering the war on the Axis side, proponents believing it might be easier to deal with Europe under a single gov't rather than under multiple gov'ts?  The attack on Pearl Harbor, possibly anticipated or known to the president, settled the matter.  But had Japan not actually attacked Pearl Harbor, 20th century history may indeed be different.  And to this day, making this huge, collective and correct decision (assuming we can truly claim that, as we may have instead stayed entirely out of the war had Japan not attacked) remains a huge source of pride for America, perhaps our proudest.

So these are good things to have learned.  But were they worth $75k, years of debt and a delay of entry as a significant participant in the job market by 6 years?  No.  The lessons I learned going to history and other classes I could have easily learned on my own time.  And while it's true at the time there was no World Wide Web and thus no such thing as Wikipedia, there is now.  Want to study History, Philosophy, Political Science, etc.?  Just go there.  It's free.

So if I had advice for anyone going to college today, it's this: For God's sake, make sure the kind of debt you are getting into (and your parents getting into also, most likely) is commensurate with what you are very certain you can make when you get out of school.  Unless you have ever been in $100k of debt before you cannot possibly know what it's like to face a monthly bill of $900 just for your student loans.  Do the math.  Graduate with an unmarketable degree in the current job market and maybe if you are very lucky you can land a job making $8-10/hr changing oil at Valvoline (like I had for awhile, but back then it was $7) or a temp job, or work at a coffee shop.  Living in an apartment or house, for example as I did, with 6 other people, paying just $100-200/mo. for rent, what's left over?  $8/hr x 40 x 4 = $1280/mo., before taxes.  After taxes at 25% it's $960.  Answer: There's nothing left over.  In fact, you're under water.  And you have not even bought food yet, have no car, and no health insurance.  All this of course is assuming you have no other means of support, like parents.

But how long can it last even if folks are helping?  What if one or both of them also fall on hard times, like a job loss or major health problem comes up?  You have to do something to get out of your mess, and spiraling debt problem. (When I was a recent grad, credit cards were easily obtained.  Today, not so.  At least back then, I could use them to buy food until I could get to a better place financially, and indeed I had over $10k in credit card debt by the time I got to that better place, just from buying necessities.  But today, credit cards are much harder for recent grads to get, so they often can't use them even to buy food.)  One way is the path I took.  But graduate school used to be much easier to get into.  Now the demand borne of job-related desperateness for places in grad schools has gone through the roof, and tuition has also risen commensurately.  Like my undergrad alma mater, it's doubtful I could have gotten into my grad school alma mater today as well.

So what else do Millenials have?  Many just don't have options once they have taken their one pass at college and incurred the nightmare level of debt it now requires.  It's an expensive and harsh lesson our society collectively is whacking our young adults with at a very vulnerable time of their lives.  But it's less of a "lesson" and more of an outright bludgeoning.  We're the proverbial species feeding on its own young, but not just them, their parents, too.  Colleges and unis are very much aware of how thoroughly unmarketable most of their degrees are today but quietly go about selling them to people they know lack the experience and judgment to discern what is happening to them.  No one can understand except a rare few what the reality of post-college life is with the kind of debt they have incurred until they have had some experience with having debts.  And the typical college student has had no such experience, and the colleges both know it and count on it.  The ethics (funny how you can take classes in ethics in college, too) are highly questionable at best and willfully predatory at worst.

College is expensive-- too expensive to go into it without being fully advised and forewarned.  More importantly, it should be seen as an investment in something you can be very sure will pay off.  Tell me, would you buy $100k worth of a stock, borrowing the money for it in fact, unless you were very sure it'd pay off?  If not, why are people so blase about throwing themselves or their kid into college under such terms knowing they are pursuing an unmarketable degree?  If you want to study History, Philosophy, Political Science, Sociology, great, just do it without paying $100k for the honor.  As I said, you can do it yourself with Wikipedia and spend your money on something that won't have you going to sleep crying and waking up screaming.

The Real Price of College Today

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/your-money/the-hidden-inheritance-many-parents-already-provide.html

"Indeed, without any family assistance in their 20s and 30s, people like her have little margin for error. They’re the ones who believed the well-meaning grown-ups who told them as teenagers and 22-year-olds to go to the best college and graduate schools they could. They accepted the gospel that any education debt was good debt."

Bingo.

My folks are both college-educated and members of the Silent Generation, born in the 1930s.  All 4 years of their college education cost less than $10k each, actually more around $5k for all 4 years each, and this included room and board.  This was back in the early  1950s, and before there were college loans available from the gov't or private sources.  But it was also the time when if you had any kind of college degree, it was your pass to an immediate decent job with good prospects so long as you weren't a total idiot.

As time went on, college loans became available, especially in the 1960s.  So economics kicked in.  Just like the wage-price spiral, the credit-price spiral took effect and the cost of college went up as the number of consumers demanding it went up while the number of colleges remained mostly the same.

This was at least tolerable as long as decent jobs were at the end of the road and loan repayments were tolerable.  What also helped was that the economy did not demand that many specialized/technical workers; just having a degree told an employer you were "educable" and that was enough for most employers.  But then in the 1980s things started to change.  Even as tuitions continued to rise and credit for college loans continued to expand, the economy began to contract and began to demand more specific kinds of workers at the same time.  This continued into the 1990s.

My folks and others from their generation (eg: guidance counsellors) not in direct contact with this broader trend had no basis for giving me or anyone in my generation direction regarding college majors that would be of general appeal to employers.  Majoring in anything and finishing college was to them sufficient to guarantee a graduate a decent-paying job with a good future and reliable long-term employment.

They (and others of their generation) were as surprised as I was to find The Rules were now very different.  After struggling for a couple years in various low-paying jobs (I had majored in History) that kept me living in houses with 6 other people and barely making payments on my loans, I realized I couldn't afford not to do something different.  Discovering from my various temp jobs I had an aptitude with computers (remember HyperCard 1.0?), I decided to go to grad school for an I.S. degree.  I avoided half the new debt I would have incurred by taking a graduate assistantship but I had to take loans out still to meet living expenses.  But this was debt worth going into because it was a marketable degree; my BA in History was not.  But I can say those classes did do something for me other than get me and my folks into 10s of 1,000s of dollars in debt (my alma mater at the time was $75k for all 4 years, room and board included; now, it's now $150k and I probably wouldn't be admitted today).  I learned that people rarely learn from history and so do in fact make the same mistakes over and over, and that by and large the larger the group of people involved in deciding or doing anything the more likely they are to make a really bad decision or do something really dumb.  Of course there are a few stark examples of this not happening and they are so rare as to be singular sources of great collective pride that lasts sometimes for generations.  That's how rare they are.  Example: America's decision to enter WWII on the Allied side.  Did you know that within the US gov't there was debate about entering the war on the Axis side, proponents believing it might be easier to deal with Europe under a single gov't rather than under multiple gov'ts?  The attack on Pearl Harbor, possibly anticipated or known to the president, settled the matter.  But had Japan not actually attacked Pearl Harbor, 20th century history may indeed be different.  And to this day, making this huge, collective and correct decision remains a huge source of pride for America, perhaps our proudest.

So these are good things to have learned.  But were they worth $75k, years of debt and a delay of entry as a significant participant in the job market by 6 years?  No.  The lessons I learned going to history and other classes I could have easily learned on my own time.  And while it's true at the time there was no World Wide Web and thus no such thing as Wikipedia, there is now.  Want to study History, Philosophy, Political Science, etc.?  Just go there.  It's free.

So if I had advice for anyone going to college today, it's this: For God's sake, make sure the kind of debt you are getting into (and your parents getting into also, most likely) is commensurate with what you are very certain you can make when you get out of school.  Unless you have ever been in $100k of debt before you cannot possibly know what it's like to face a monthly bill of $900 just for your student loans.  Do the math.  Graduate with an unmarketable degree in the current job market and maybe if you are very lucky you can land a job making $8-10/hr changing oil at Valvoline (like I had for awhile, but back then it was $7) or a temp job, or work at a coffee shop.  Living in an apartment or house, for example as I did, with 6 other people, paying just $100-200/mo. for rent, what's left over?  $8/hr x 40 x 4 = $1280/mo., before taxes.  After taxes at 25% it's $960.  Answer: There's nothing left over.  In fact, you're under water.  And you have not even bought food yet, have no car, and no health insurance.  All this of course is assuming you have no other means of support, like parents.

But how long can it last even if folks are helping?  What if one or both of them also fall on hard times , like a job loss or major health problem comes up?  You have to do something to get out of your mess, and spiraling debt problem. (When I was a recent grad, credit cards were easily obtained.  Today, not so.  At least back then, I could use them to buy food until I could get to a better place financially, and indeed I had over $10k in credit card debt by the time I got to that better place, just from buying necessities.  But today, credit cards are much harder for recent grads to get, so they often can't use them even to buy food.)  One way is the path I took.  But graduate school used to be much easier to get into.  Now the demand borne of job-related desperateness for places in grad schools has gone through the roof, and tuition has also risen commensurately.  Like my undergrad alma mater, it's doubtful I could have gotten into my grad school alma mater today as well.

So what else do Millenials have?  Many just don't have options once they have taken their one pass at college and incurred the nightmare level of debt it now requires.  It's an expensive and harsh lesson our society collectively is whacking our young adults with at a very vulnerable time of their lives.  But it's less of a "lesson" and more of an outright bludgeoning.  We're the proverbial species feeding on its own young, but not just them, their parents, too.  Colleges and unis are very much aware of how thoroughly unmarketable most of their degrees are today but quietly go about selling them to people they know lack the experience and judgment to discern what is happening to them.  No one can understand except a rare few what the reality of post-college life is with the kind of debt they have incurred until they have had some experience with having debts.  And the typical college student has had no such experience, and the colleges both know it and count on it.  The ethics (funny how you can take classes in ethics in college, too) are highly questionable at best and willfully predatory at worst.

College is expensive-- too expensive to go into it without being fully advised and forewarned.  More importantly, it should be seen as an investment in something you can be very sure will pay off.  Tell me, would you buy $100k worth of a stock, borrowing the money for it in fact, unless you were very sure it'd pay off?  If not, why are people so blase about throwing themselves or their kid into college under such terms knowing they are pursuing an unmarketable degree?  If you want to study History, Philosophy, Political Science, Sociology, great, just do it without paying $100k for the honor.  As I said, you can do it yourself with Wikipedia and spend your money on something that won't have you going to sleep crying and waking up screaming.

Saturday, September 01, 2012

Just say 'No' to benzene-ified water...

Thoughts on Hydrofracking in NY (and elsewhere)

My $.02, so here goes: Hydrofracking is a way of extracting natural gas from shale deposits.  It is currently a hot topic for people in the eastern part of the US, particularly in NY, PA, and W. VA.  Fracking as a technique is not new, nor is it new to NY.  NY has applied more stringent regulations around its use than other states.  States that have been lax have indeed paid a price for not caring about what happens to their water supply.

Short version is this: No.  Any profit we can get collectively or privately from fracking will be offset by something far more important: rapidly-deteriorating health and environment to go with it, affecting all of us within drinking distance of a fracking site.  And drinking distances can be awfully long.

Money doesn't talk, it screams.  Here in NY, Gov. Cuomo is under a lot of pressure to find answers to the state's economic and budget problems.  A quick (but dirty) solution would be to allow extraction companies to hydrofrack substantially more across the Marcellus Shale region (map) that extends into upstate NY and in the process introduce tons of seriously toxic chemicals deep into the ground, at or below the watershed level.  This will in all likelihood poison the water supply in and around that area, including the water tapped by millions of people in NYC.  It may not happen immediately, but eventually it will.

I am not a foe of industrial or economic development.  I fully recognize that the lifestyle we have is due entirely to industrial development.  I am not some naive Pollyanna that believes cars and airplanes, along with roads and modern electrical and plumbing systems, are naturally-occurring things found in the environment.  They need to be manufactured, and this takes science, industry, and a lot of other things.  The work required is motivated by the desire to profit from them.  Indeed, modern civilization wouldn't exist without easy trade liquidity (i.e., money), and the most reliable way to get it aside from inheriting it is to invent things people want/need or supply things people want/need, such as energy and the fuel used to generate it.  People want and need things to make their lives better and easier, and that is where modern inventions come in, and these things need to be powered.  But at what point does our desire for these conveniences encroach upon our own fundamental self-interests?  When we turn to using means to acquire the materials we use to power our modern lifestyles at the expense of poisoning the very water we drink and bathe in, that's when.

Some have argued that if done carefully and under tight regulation, fracking can be done safely.  Let's say that even if extraction companies fully intend to comply with both the word and spirit of every environmental regulation around fracking, does anyone think that the vast amounts of water and dangerous chemicals used in the fracking process will always behave just the way people want them to?  Liquids have a way of going where gravity wants them to go and water's adhesive capillary action makes its movements even more unpredictable.  And, does anyone who didn't just fall off the back of a turnip truck actually believe extraction companies with literally billions of dollars worth of natural gas for the taking are going to adhere religiously to all the rules and regulations they are supposed to?  Even if the NY DEC catches one or more of them having committed a serious violation, it'll still be too late.  Once the water table is poisoned, it's poisoned.  And the chemicals used in fracking are not "low-grade" toxins.  Just one of them is benzene, which is dangerous to all human/animal life in almost any amount. [Note the linked page says that 500ppm of benzene induces illness in humans.  Do the math: 500/1000000 = 0.0005.  0.0005 of 1 gal. is 1.89271 ml.  That is all that is takes to induce illness in a human: 1.89271 ml of benzene in 1 gal. of water.  Imagine the effects it can have on you as you drink contaminated water day in and day out.  And you can be exposed to fracking chemicals by breathing them in as well; NPR covered one such set of cases.]

The choice NY has is clear.  We either take the quick route and allow a lot more fracking and clean up (financially) in the short-term but pay later with contaminated water supplies (and attendant health and legal problems), along with a damaged environment and tourism industry to go with it.  Or, we take the slightly longer but more conscientious route.  NY can get its way out of its economic problems without selling out its environmental health and well-being.  The dice we're rolling are too big when considering that we're not just rolling them for ourselves but for children who are too young to control their own decisions about whether they live near a fracking site, and for subsequent generations who, like us, need clean water to drink and bathe in.

If you're inclined, either start Googling, or, some light reading:

For sharing your opinion with Gov. Cuomo:
http://www.governor.ny.gov/contact/GovernorContactForm.php

NY DEC seems fine with fracking:
http://www.dec.ny.gov/energy/46288.html

Recent news re where Cuomo stands on fracking:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/14/nyregion/hydrofracking-under-cuomo-plan-would-be-restricted-to-a-few-counties.html

Can you really count on accurate self-reporting from extractors?:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/science/earth/17gas.html

Details on fracking, including the obscene amounts of water used and what chemicals are used:
http://www.earthworksaction.org/issues/detail/hydraulic_fracturing_101